Predicting Climate Variability and Change.
Prof. Dr. Brian Hoskins (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading/UK)

The process of producing projections of future climate that has been used until recently will be described, and various successes, difficulties and limitations will be discussed. State-of-the-art weather forecasting systems include the use of high resolution numerical prediction models intimately linked to sophisticated procedures for the analysis of data from purpose designed observational systems. Uncertainty due both to lack of knowledge and to the physics of the problem is handled by making ensembles of predictions. The increasingly comprehensive nature of climate models and the extension of modern weather forecasting procedures to longer time-scales and to the prediction of climate variability and change will be discussed.