Seamless prediction of the earth system: From minutes to months
Prof. Dr. Sarah Jones (Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach)

The provision of accurate forecasts and warnings of high impact weather systems depends on the ability to predict the complex interaction of weather systems and their underlying physical processes on time scales from minutes to months and space scales from less than a kilometer to the planetary scale. This paradigm has become known in the international community as seamless prediction. In this framework, observations, numerical weather and climate prediction models, as well as research to advance our knowledge and understanding of the physical processes involved attempt to span the scales of interest in a seamless manner. More recently the concept of seamless prediction has been expanded to include linking the science to the users of meteorological information as well as taking into account chemical and aerosol processes in the atmosphere. In this presentation we will look at some of the key elements in the seamless prediction problem and discuss the implications for operational needs and future research priorities both in the national context as well as for the World Weather Research Programme of the World Meteorological Organisation.